Why pellets are likely to get more expensive this winter, and what you can already do about it

1. A long, harsh winter in Eastern Europe has left its mark

Last winter in Eastern Europe was exceptionally long and severe. That had a double effect on pellet stocks. On one hand, production temporarily halted at several factories due to extreme cold — machinery and supply chains failing right when they were needed most. On the other hand, that same cold pushed consumption sharply higher, as households heated for longer and more intensively than in an average year. The result: stocks that would normally be replenished by spring stayed structurally lower than expected this time around.

2. Transport has become significantly more expensive

Part of the pellets on the European market arrive by ship, and the ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have heavily disrupted international shipping. Insurance premiums for cargo vessels have surged and routes are being rerouted, making the supply of pellets via this route tighter — and driving up scarcity, and price, as a result.

On top of that comes a second, separate problem: truck transport for home delivery has also become notably more expensive. Higher fuel prices and generally rising transport costs carry through all the way to the last mile, right to your doorstep.

3. The construction sector is struggling, which directly affects pellet production

What few people realize: wood pellets are largely a byproduct of the timber and construction industry. Sawdust and wood residue from sawmills and timber-processing companies form an essential raw material for pellet manufacturers. With the construction sector under pressure in several European countries — fewer new-build projects, less activity at sawmills — the available amount of sawdust is also declining. Less raw material inevitably means a higher production cost for pellet manufacturers.

Each of these three factors would put some pressure on prices on its own. The problem is that they're happening at the same time. Lower stocks due to the Eastern European winter, higher transport costs due to the situation around Hormuz and fuel prices, and a tighter raw-material supply due to the construction crisis — this is a combination the pellet market rarely sees, leaving producers and suppliers little room to keep prices low heading into the heating season.

Waiting for a price drop on your pellets this winter is not a smart choice. Market conditions point in the other direction. Anyone with sufficient dry, well-ventilated storage space would do well to order now, before demand peaks in September and October and delivery times start stretching out.

Our advice: order in time, and avoid having to heat your home at high prices.

That's exactly why it's especially worthwhile to take advantage of the discount through the group purchase in your region right now: standing strong together against a market under pressure from multiple directions, without having to foot the bill yourself for a cocktail of factors you had no part in.